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I don’t want to say “I told you so” but, I told you so.

In all seriousness though it wasn’t like I was going out on a limb saying Buster Posey needed to be called up the big league club. Not at all. That limb was fully crowded and just waiting to break over Brian Sabean’s head at any minute.

But for the applause he gets, if he gets one at all, for bringing The Posey to the majors, he deserves a big “huh?” for playing him at first base.

Understandably first base is a decidedly easy position to play. As most would say, the fat kid plays first. So it isn’t a stretch to think an athlete like Posey – who played shortstop at Florida State before he was moved behind the plate – could handle the position with relative ease while waiting for the sink hole that is Bengie Molina to up-anchor and leave port. Unfortunately for Giants fans, that isn’t immediately.

Why? Why is it that a player with already “old-player skills” like Molina, that’s playing a premium defensive position in his age 36 season, is allowed to continue to rot his place on the diamond and payroll while an obviously more talented player is forced to play musical positions? Because Posey “hasn’t learned how to handle a pitching staff.”

Maybe that’s not the exact reason, but it’s certainly on the short list that the Giants organization will give. Others would include: “Molina calls a good game”, “Bengie is a leader out there”, and “we need Bengie’s veteran presence and power in the lineup”.  All perfectly good explanations for the awarding of playing time, you know, if those certain traits even existed.

But they don’t.

We must first remember that Brian Sabean is the same general manager who decided it was a good idea to say AAA baseball “wasn’t very good” when we listen to his thoughts on roster construction. He’s also the same GM that handed out big money contracts to Aaron Rowand, Edgar Renteria, and thought Randy Winn should be a starting right fielder AND gave him this freakishly horrific contract.*He and Dayton Moore should give a seminar on how to best waste money.

*To be fair, I suppose, Brian Cashman of the Yankees also thought it was a good idea to give Winn a contract. He didn’t think he would be a starter necessarily, but you just know when he gave him $1 million he thought “we got ourselves a great 4^th outfielder” when anyone that can read statistics would have said “you’ve got yourself a well-groomed beard and little else.”

So when GMs, and other people around baseball, start using their ever-favorite buzzwords like “handles a pitching staff”, and “leader”, and “plays the game the right way”, and “pitch to contact” – oh sorry that’s a ridiculous phrase to be addressed at another time – we should all gather around and be skeptical of what exactly it is they think they’re seeing.

Baseball uses the ever-safe veterans because they know what they’re going to get, even if what they get is terrible. Somehow when a veteran fails, it tends to look better in the eyes of baseball because they can justify poor performance in these little things unseen to us common folk. They justify their place on the roster with nonsense traits that have little to do with winning, and more to do with covering the GMs backside.

Jason Kendall should bat second because he “really handles the bat well.”

Raul Ibanez should continue to play because he “plays the game the right way.”

Bengie Molina needs to catch because he really “handles a pitching staff.”

None of these “abilities” should in any way be the measuring stick by which playing time is awarded. Handling the bat well I’m sure would be a fine trait if it weren’t being used up in the position that will be getting the second most at-bats in the order. Instead of using that spot for someone that can, you know, hit, the Royals use it with someone who has a lower OPS than some pitchers.

After Ibanez had a terrific April and half of May to start the 2009 season, he has since shown that he is in fact 38-years-old, and is no longer deserving of everyday playing time in the majors. They would be better off with some sort of Ibanez/Ben Francisco* platoon or just calling up Double-A phenom Dominic Brown.

*Another interesting part about baseball is the label game. Once a player is given a label based on what someone sees – fourth outfielder, utility guy, long relief guy – it is nearly impossible for that label to be removed. Or, even though he may be out-producing an injured player or the player he sits behind in limited chances, he will never get the chance to fully unseat the current starter because of his label.

The label game will be in full effect in New York and Kansas City when Carlos Beltran and Rick Ankiel return to the lineup healthy. Angel Pagan is a fine player. So is Mitch Maier. But both will be replaced – though in Pagan’s case because the Mets won’t sit Jeff Francoeur – once each teams “starting outfielder” returns, even though they will both be better than the guy they’re sitting behind.

Molina may in fact have some redeemable traits that make him a quality defensive catcher. But does he have any of those traits, both offensively and defensively, to be considered a starting catcher? Most likely not and certainly not when the value of Posey’s bat almost assuredly outweighs the value of Molina’s glove.

Perhaps at this very moment in time Molina is ahead of Posey defensively. Fine. But it’s pretty clear there is nothing left for Posey to learn in the minor leagues, and if “handling a pitching staff” is really a measurable skill that Posey is lacking, there is nothing left for him to learn in Triple-A where the pitching he’ll be handling “isn’t very good” anyway

‘Til next time.

Buster Posey is good. Real good. Real good especially because he plays a position that doesn’t often lend itself to offensive production, which just so happens to be what ol’ Buster does best.

Bengie Molina, well, he’s not so good. He’s old, slow, doesn’t throw all that well anymore, doesn’t hit all that well anymore (ignore the batting average for a moment and get with the new century), and the last time he saw a pitch he didn’t feel fit to swing at was when little brother Yadier was throwing to him in the backyard.

Molina also makes $5 million this year. Posey? Let’s just say he’s slightly under that.

The paying, and subsequently playing, of an older, unproductive, and expensive player is the thing that can show the ineptness of an organization quicker than anything else. The defending of such moves because of those pesky little things unseen (he’s a leader!)shows the real ignorance of generations past in how they view baseball and how they choose to construct a roster. It’s sad really.

Teams all over baseball do this. Well, not necessarily the winning teams. Funny how that works out.

The Royals do it. They signed and continue to play Scott Podsednik even though his already empty batting average is proven to be more the byproduct of an unreal, unsustainable, start to the season, rather than his talent.

The Cubs are doing it because they signed Bob Howry instead of bringing up either Jay Jackson or Andrew Cashner.

The Astros do it, although by not really blocking a well-known prospect, by electing to pay Pedro Feliz to play perfectly average defense and little else.

The Royals do it. (See a pattern with this franchise?) They signed Rick Ankiel which meant pushing a younger, better, cheaper player in Mitch Maier to the bench before Ankiel got hurt. Thankfully.

Why do teams do this? It must be something in the comfort of the name. Organizations that are strapped for money, or organizations that constantly lose, must feel like they can’t afford to not sign these guys. I mean, they’re names. Some are relatively big names. Not big names like Pujols, or A-Rod, or Mauer mind you, but big enough names that the fans know who they are. And thus, the organization knows who they are.

So I suppose that’s it. It’s the fear of the unknown in the young players. I would contest the fear shouldn’t be in the “what if Buster Posey doesn’t perform?” camp, but rather the “what if Bengie Molina performs exactly how he’s proven he’s going to?” camp.

The numbers can be pretty.

Molina hit 20 homeruns last year and drove in 80. He’s good!

Feliz had 82 RBI last year. What other third baseman on the market will give us that kind of production? He’s good!

Rick Ankiel used to be a pitcher. Now, he’s an outfielder! He’s good!

However each of these players when put in the correct context should only be seen as struggling to be average and nothing more. Unfortunately for the teams that employ them though, they are not paid like average players.

Molina has a .323 wOBA (an average wOBA is about .340) which would be a perfectly acceptable number from a catcher if he were making say, what Posey would be making, league minimum.

Feliz has a .548 OPS so far this year. .548! Let’s pause for a moment to let that number sink in. That’s bad. That’s phenomenally bad. It’s so bad in fact that the Astros are willingly paying him $4.5 million this season. Well, you say, that’s because he had a good year last year and they’re paying on past performance. Okay. Last season, Feliz had a .694 OPS. Yeah, that’s really bad too.

For some teams, and I suppose the Giants would consider themselves in this category, keeping a player down to hold back his service time which means delaying arbitration is a big issue. It could mean the difference between 2, 3, maybe even as much as 5 million dollars a few years down the round. That’s quite a lot of money that could be used on other good players to surround someone like Posey in a couple of years.

Then again, if Posey is the player everyone thinks he is, or at least the hitter everyone thinks he is, the difference between the playoffs and not for a franchise like San Francisco means a heck of a lot more than the possibility of $5 million three years from now.

‘Til next time.

So the MLBPA is considering filing a grievance against the owners for possible collusion stemming from the lack of reckless spending during the “post-2009 free agent market.”

The only reaction I have to this is the same one Charlie Donovan had towards Rachel Phelps when she told him to sit down.

It makes perfect sense for the players union to do all they can to make sure their clients are getting all – and them some – according to what the market dictates. That is the creed all unions are charged with. They are to make sure things are always done in the workers best interest. Only in this case, it has little to do with the economy, and more to do with baseball people slowly understanding how baseball actually works.

Before Moneyball – yes, the M word – teams were largely stuck in neutral with regards to how they evaluated players. It was all about what you saw.

This guy’s fast.

This guy’s got great power.

Boy the ball really jumps off his bat.

And my favorite, he really plays the game the “right way,” as if there is any skill called the “right way”.

All, I suppose, perfectly fine ways of looking at baseball if you were content with walking around with your head in the sand and thinking the world is flat. But as technology evolved, our understanding of certain mathematical factors evolved, and player trends stayed the same, very smart people started to see patterns and thought to themselves: what does this all mean?

Great evolvements in human history come from curios minds. The exploiting of market inefficiencies in baseball is one of them.

All Moneyball set out to prove was that certain skills, mainly the skill of getting on base, were undervalued in the market because it wasn’t a clearly seen ability. At least, not one if you never bothered to think about it objectively. Getting on base is the most important offensive skill in baseball because the game is governed by outs, not by runs, and the fewer outs you make the more runs you create. It’s simple.

But for decades baseball organizations were routinely run by those that were “brought up with the game,” which is a fancy way of saying they never got outside their bubble to learn from a more objective view point.

And within that bubble of subjectivity lies the problem. It was incurious people learning from incurious people – a breeding ground for unoriginal thought and devolvement. It was the reason then, and still is today, that baseball is the most poorly run business in the country. Players of little to no value are paid more than players of actual productive value, because there are still those that believe baseball is entirely in what you see, and not what has been proven.

Take the Kansas City Royals for instance.

This last off-season the GM Dayton Moore signed Rick Ankiel, Scott Podsednik, and Jason Kendall, all while having players already on the roster that would provide equal to, or more value, for a fraction of the cost.

Kendall was given a 2 year, $6-million deal even though he’s an atrocious hitter, has overrated on base skills (his stats largely reflect hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League) and is 36 years old. The deal was justified because he calls a great game (an extremely overrated, and subjective, skill), knows how to handle a pitching staff (another extremely overrated, and subjective, skill), and is a “winner.”

Now we can argue the merits of those traits and whether or not they actually mean anything or have anything to do with a team win, but what cannot be argued is those (presumed) traits Kendall brings to the table are not enough of a positive difference when compared to Brayan Pena’s actual talent, to justify the extra $5+ million the Royals are spending.

In any other business in the United States personnel is paid based on what they are producing not what they might produce, or could produce, or someone, somewhere, thinks they can produce. Kendall has been a below average Major League player for more than three years now. There is no reason to conclude he should warrant money the “market dictates.” His value is minimal; he should be paid, minimally.

The players union may claim collusion because money isn’t being thrown around as wildly as it used to be, but I think – I hope – that’s done more because they have to and not because they think it’s true.

Baseball is getting smarter, not cheaper. Team executives understand more the true value of players around the evolvement of statistics, and are dolling out their money more according to what they prove and not according to what they think. Baseball is starting to act more like a responsible business.

The union should be glad they still have the Royals.