Houston, We Have a Solution
Over the next few weeks I hope to give a State of the Franchise post for many if not all of the teams throughout Major League Baseball. I’m sure some will be left out, and I’m not quite sure yet if I’m going to do one on the Royals because I don’t want to die from a self-inflicted brain hemorrhage.
Each of these will be posted on ProRumors.com, the site I’m currently writing for, as well, but you can be sure that the snark level will be much greater here on The Rant. Feel free to join in the discussion as we go with your opinions on each team and why I’m a fool for thinking the way I do. And as always, shoot some rant ideas my way so I can vamp uncontrollably and possibly, offend someone. Enjoy.
The rumors recently have the Houston Astros shopping one, if not both, of their homegrown stars as the summer trade deadline approaches. It does make sense for the Astros to be looking around for the best possible talent-haul they could get back for either Roy Oswalt or Lance Berkman, but is that even possible?
The Astros for the last three to four seasons have been that cautionary tale that all stat-geeks talk about when referring to teams that pay for perceived skill based on reputation instead of actual value based on production. In large part this tale is affirmed with the contracts given to league-average players such asPedro Feliz, and Brandon Lyon, in an effort to be “competitive” when that money would be better spent on amateur players.
For a franchise in the market size of Houston – which let’s be honest, Houston is a rather large city, any payroll limitations they may have are self-inflicted – the best bargain of talent they can find is through Latin-American signings and the draft. Instead, coming as close as they did at winning the World Series in 2005, Houston ever since has been trying to regain that level of talent by handing out massive contracts to +30 year old players. It’s not a great idea. Ask the Phillies in five years regarding Ryan Howard.
So while owner Drayton McLane might find it better for the sake of his PR department to keep players that the community can identify with – which is a largely foolish reason to keep a player – he’s stuck keeping the player that should be traded, Carlos Lee, because of some $46 million still owed to him over the next three years and a full no-trade clause. Lee is a prime example of what “old-player skills” look like when they get, well, old. He’s a terrible leftfielder with a slowing bat and a whole ton of money still coming his way. He’s stuck.
So what should the Astros do? Blow it up. Of course, I’m always in favor of blowing it up when it comes to perennially bad teams with three players making over $14 million. If you’re going to lose, lose with young talent. The only problem is each player has a full no-trade clause, but hopefully, the chance to player for a winner could get each to waive that.
Trading Oswalt and Berkman and eating a large sum of the money like Cleveland did when they tradedCasey Blake to the Dodgers for Carlos Santana, should be first on the agenda. Sure that’s easier said than done because it isn’t my money, but teams every year fall into the same trap over worrying about money owed to players because of familiarity.
Veterans make a lot of money for the most part because they’ve been around long enough to accumulate the counting stats that necessitate raises. See: Feliz, Pedro. Also there’s a case of “I know what I have in this guy” syndrome floating around that keeps bad teams bad. Veterans are, if nothing else consistent, and that in baseball’s mind means a lot. But at this point Oswalt’s value to the Astros is more in what he can bring back in terms of young talent than his current 3.16 ERA. Why? Because it’s not like they’re winning with him anyway.
Oswalt is signed through 2011 with a healthy club option of $16 million for 2012. Chances are that’s not getting picked up, so whatever team trades for him is looking at roughly $25.5 million for the right-hander after his $2 million buyout.
Berkman’s contract is up at the end of this year so he fits the literal definition of Rental Player. There’s almost no way the Astros can flip Berkman for talent if they don’t eat most, if not all, of the remaining money on his contract. A 34-year-old first baseman having a bad year isn’t exactly a top priority for most clubs. But you can envision a club like the Angels looking into Berkman as someone to fill the void left by the (hilariously) injured Kendry Morales.
Houston should use Oswalt and Berkman as if they would, or should, use the draft. The money they would be spending to send each player to another team should be considered the same as a signing bonus they would give a drafted amateur. These two players give the Astros a chance to quickly rebound a farm system that hasn’t produced an all-star player since, well, these two.
‘Til next time.